The Effect of GDP on US Pulp and Paper Output: A Time Series Analysis

This analysis provides additional insights into the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and output in the US pulp and paper industry. Based upon data from the first quarter in 1972 through the third quarter in 2012, the study estimates time series models of pulp and paper output and uses GDP forecasts to forecast total and sub-sector output through the first quarter of 2014. Among the findings, there is a proportional relationship between output and GDP in most sectors of the industry. Yet output forecasts indicate disproportionate increases reflecting the effects of other determining factors. The analysis identifies implications for mill managers and producers as they adjust their output to current and expected changes in GDP.